Bitcoin (BTC) has been the focal point of intense market speculation, with its price movements often dictating the broader cryptocurrency landscape. Recently, Bitcoin faced a price rejection around $59k, leading to a 2.1 percent decline within 24 hours and heightening fears of further market downturns. As the price hovered around $57,300, the fear and greed index plummeted to 25, signaling extreme fear among investors. Despite these bearish signals, there are compelling reasons to believe that Bitcoin could trigger a bull run in August. Key market players, including institutional investors and Bitcoin whales, are positioning themselves for long-term gains, suggesting a potential market rebound.

Current Market Sentiment and Price Analysis

The recent Bitcoin price rejection around $59k has widened the crowd’s fear of further crypto capitulation. As Bitcoin price continued to hover around $57,300 on Friday during the early New York session, the fear and greed index dropped further towards 25, which is interpreted as extreme fear. The crypto crowd’s fear is well-founded on the fact that Bitcoin price has confirmed a mid-term bearish signal towards $50k in the coming weeks. In the past four months, Bitcoin price formed a possible double top backed by a bearish divergence of the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). Unless the Bitcoin price regains support above $61k in the coming weeks, it is safe to assume that $73k was a local top.

Bitcoin Whales Focused on Long-Term Opportunity

According to on-chain data, institutions and large holders of Bitcoin accelerated the BTC accumulation pace in the past month. Furthermore, the recent US economic data suggests a cooling inflation, which is a signal to inevitable interest rate cuts later this year. The long-term Bitcoin holders have been absorbing the heightened selling pressure from the German government and now from Genesis Trading.

Institutional Accumulation

The address marked as “Genesis Trading” by Arkham has transferred a total of 12k BTC to Coinbase in the past month, worth about $760 million. It is suspected to be in bankruptcy liquidation procedures and currently holds about 33,000 BTC, worth $1.9 billion. According to Arkham Intelligence, a Bitcoin address associated with Genesis Trading has sold 12k BTCs in the past month. Currently, the bankrupt company holds about 33k Bitcoins, worth around $1.9 billion, which will be liquidated in the coming months.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Technical Analysis and Predictions

According to a popular crypto influencer alias Open4Profit, Bitcoin price will resume its uptrend during the fourth quarter after completing a fakeout consolidation. The crypto analyst argued that Bitcoin price will regain the 200-day Moving Average (MA) in a similar manner as it happened in October last year. The 200-day moving average for Bitcoin is a key support level for the cryptocurrency to form rallies. Any rally can be divided into three phases: Accumulation, Fakeout, and Expansion. After making a bear market bottom, Bitcoin crossed the 200MA in January 2023, indicating a potential for future rallies.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

The immediate market structure reveals a short-term contracting triangle with resistance near $61,000. A successful breach of this level, followed by surpassing the $61,850 resistance, could open the path towards the $65,000 and potentially the $70,000 benchmarks. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to overcome the $61,000 resistance, it might trigger a correction phase, with key support levels positioned at $57,000 and $55,000.

Market Sentiment and External Factors

Economic Indicators

The recent US economic data suggests a cooling inflation, which is a signal to inevitable interest rate cuts later this year. This macroeconomic factor could play a significant role in Bitcoin’s price movement. Lower interest rates generally lead to higher liquidity in the market, which could drive more investments into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Institutional Investments

Institutions and large holders of Bitcoin have been accelerating their BTC accumulation pace in the past month. This trend indicates a strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. The heightened selling pressure from the German government and Genesis Trading has been absorbed by these long-term holders, suggesting a robust underlying demand for Bitcoin.

Summary

Despite the recent bearish signals and market fears, there are compelling reasons to believe that Bitcoin could trigger a bull run in August. Key market players, including institutional investors and Bitcoin whales, are positioning themselves for long-term gains. The technical indicators also suggest a potential market rebound, with key support and resistance levels to watch closely. As always, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor price movements and key technical indicators to make informed decisions.

The author does not own or have any interest in the securities discussed in the article.